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“Menlo Security’s predictions for Anti-Ransomware Day 2023 is that despite Lockbit continuing to be the dominant ransomware threat group, typical ransomware activity will decline. The main reason being that ransomware threat actors are financially motivated, and trends are showing that ransomware payments are far less lucrative than they once were. It’s estimated that payments to attackers fell from a peak of $766 million in 2021 to $457 million in 2022.
The most likely reason why ransomware payments have been less successful for attackers is because organisations are refusing to pay. They are taking better care of protecting systems against compromises and breaches and maintaining access to backups which makes them much less vulnerable.
Yet, whilst locking systems and delivering a ransom demand may be less effective, attackers have adapted other extortion methods. We may begin to see a rise in double extortion (exfiltrating a victim’s sensitive data) and name and shame (drawing more widespread attention to the incident) methods as additional leverage to collect payments.”