2018 IT Security Predictions - Methods for Attacks, Investment Areas & Cybersecurity Strategies
December 2017 by Morey Haber, VP, Technology, BeyondTrust
It’s that time of year again when we look back at what has motivated the market
for IT security solutions in the last year, in order to develop our plans for
the next year. With so many public exploits, and data
breaches, there’s certainly no shortage of material to leverage! I have
grouped my predictions in to three categories: Methods for major hacks, breaches
and exploits; The business of cybersecurity - focus and investments; and
Offensive and defensive strategies.
Prediction #1 - The bigger they are, the harder they fall
If we think the headlines, with news of major organizations getting breached,
shocked us, we will learn that large organizations have poor cyber security
hygiene, are not meeting regulations, and are failing to enforce the policies
they developed, recommend, and enforce on others. Next year’s news will have
even more high-profile names.
Prediction #2 - Increase in mobile phone spam
With there being more mobile phones in most countries than there are citizens in
those countries, mobile phone spam will rise 10,000% due to automated spam and
dialing ’botnets’ that essentially render most phones unusable because they
receive so many phone calls from unidentified numbers. This rise in phone spam
pushes cellular carriers to start to require that end users adopt an "opt in"
policy so only those in their contacts can call them.
Prediction #3 - Major increase in ’gaming deleteware’ infections
’Gaming deleteware’ infections across most major platforms will increase as
botnets continuously attack gaming networks and devices such as Steam, Xbox,
PlayStation, and Nintendo systems with the sole intention of rendering the
machine inoperable. The malware is downloaded as an embedded game add-on,
causing millions of devices to need to be replaced.
Prediction #4 - The first major Apple iOS virus hits within a popular "free"
game
As users click on the ’ad’ to play a game for free, their iOS11 device will be
compromised, leaking all data stored in the local Safari password storage vault.
Prediction #5 - Continued growth in the use of ransomware and cyber-extortion
tools
2017 has proven the model that vulnerabilities nearly 20 years old are being
exploited in organizational networks (Verizon DBIR
2017 (https://www.beyondtrust.com/blog/2017-verizon-dbir-sexy-stuff-sells-basics
– get-done/)), so the opportunity is too great and too easy for organized crime
to ignore. Further, the commoditization of these tools on the deep web opens the
door to anyone who feels the risk is worth the reward. This is likely to
continue until organizations get the basics right and the risk/reward balance
tips, making ransomware far less appealing.
Prediction #6 - More end-user targeting
Penetration through unpatched servers like in the case of
Equifax (https://www.beyondtrust.com/blog/equifax-data-breach-cve-violations
– 1999/) will happen, but hackers will continue to target end users with more
sophisticated phishing and targeted malware, taking advantage of
unpatched desktops where clients have far too many privileges. Again, don’t take
your eyes off the end users.
Prediction #7 - Biometric hacking will be front and center
Attacks and research against biometric technology in Microsoft Hello, Surface
Laptops, Samsung Galaxy Note, and Apple iPhone X will be the highest prize
targets for researchers and hackers. The results will prove that these new
technologies are just as susceptible to compromise as touch ID sensors,
passcodes, and passwords.
Prediction #8 - Cyber recycling
As we see a rise in the adoption of the latest and greatest devices, we will see
devices, and now IoT, be cyber recycled. These devices, including mobile phones,
won’t be destroyed however. They will be wiped, refurbished, and resold even
though they are end of life (EOL). Look for geographic attacks against these
devices to rise since they are out of maintenance.
Category: The business of cybersecurity - focus and investments
Prediction #9 - More money for security, but the basics still won’t be covered
Organizations will continue to increase spending on security and new solutions,
but will struggle to keep up with basic security hygiene such as patching.
Hackers will continue to penetrate environments leveraging known vulnerabilities
where patches have existed for quite some time. Regardless of whether it is an
employee mistake, lack of resources, or operational priorities, we are sure to
see this theme highlighted in the next Verizon Breach
report.
Prediction #10 - IAM and privilege management going hand-in-hand
Identity Access Management and privilege management adoption as a required security
layer will continue. We will see more security vendors adding identity context
to their product lines. Identity context in NAC and micro-segmentation
technologies will increase as organizations invest in technologies to minimize
breach impact.
Prediction #11 - Greater cloud security investments
Vendors will begin to invest more heavily to protect
cloud specific
deployments for customers migrating to the cloud. Supporting Docker/containers,
DevOps
use cases, and enforcing secure cloud configurations are some initiatives that
will be driven by customers.
Prediction #12 - Acceptance that "completely safe" is unobtainable
As 2018 progresses and more and more organizations accept that breaches are
inevitable there will be a shift toward containing the breach rather than trying
to prevent it. This doesn’t mean abandoning the wall, but rather accepting that
it isn’t perfect, can never be and shifting appropriate focus toward limiting
the impact of the breach. Organizations will refocus on the basics of
cybersecurity best practice to enable them to build effective solutions that
impede hackers without impacting legitimate users.
Prediction #13 - Chaos erupts as the GDPR grace period ends
As organizations enter 2018 and realize the size of the task to become GDPR
compliant by 25th May, there will be a lot of panic. This legislation
seems poorly understood which has led to many organizations tabling it for
’later’ and, for many, they will wait until the first prosecution is underway
before they react. The EU gave over 2 years, after GDPR passed into law (27th
April 2016), for organizations to become GDPR compliant, so there is likely to
be little tolerance for non-compliant organizations which are breached after
25th May and, more than likely, some example setting. Those who completed their
GDPR compliance ahead of the deadline will be right to feel smug as they watch
their competitors flail.
Category: Offensive and defensive strategies
Prediction #14 - Increased automation in cybersecurity response
The size of the cybersecurity threat continues to grow through 2018, with
increasing numbers of attack vectors combined with increased incidence of
attacks via each vector (driven by commoditization of attack tools) leading to
massive increases in the volume of data being processed by cybersecurity teams.
This demands improvement in the automation of responses in cybersecurity tools
to do much of the heavy lifting, thereby freeing the cyber teams to focus both
on the high-risk threats identified and in planning effectively for improvements
in defences. Increased use of machine learning technologies and, from that, more
positive outcomes will lead to a significant growth in this area.
Prediction #15 - Richer cybersecurity vision
As organizations’ needs for more comprehensive cybersecurity solutions grows, so
will the need for effective integration between the vendors of those
technologies. This will lead to more technology partnerships in the near-term
and eventually to industry-standards for integration in the longer term. The
ability for systems to work with relatively unstructured data will allow for
more effective information interchange and, as a result, far richer and more
rewarding views across our cyber landscapes.
Prediction #16 - It is now law
Governments will begin passing legislation around cybersecurity and the basic
management of IoT devices required for safe and secure computing.